What They Say
DSCC’s blog update pointed out a change in its capacity outlook with a switch to a reduction in the outlook after six quarters of increasing capacity forecasts after delays and cancellations based on worsening market conditions for panel revenues. The capacity is now expected to rise by 4.8 CAGR from 2021 to 2026 against 5.1% in the last forecast.
LCD was downgraded from 3.9% growth to 3.7% over the period, with OLEDs downgraded from 15.7% to 15.3%. That bigger growth for OLED capacity will mean a share rising from 8% in 2021 to 13% in 2026. LCD TVs remain the biggest market by a long way, but with OLED rising and ‘Other LCD’ the main loser.
China will rise to 72% share in 2026, with 82% of the TV market and more than half of the flexible (58%) and mobile (52%) OLEDs.
The blog looks at capacity by application, by vendor (BOE will lead in 2026 with 25.5% and CSOT at 16%, with HKC at 11% and LGD at 8.8%). SDC will stay above 40% in mobile OLEDs throughout the forecast.
By backplane, LTPS is the big loser in backplanes, with Oxides increasing to over 50% in 2025. LTPO is expected to peak in 2024 as IT OLED panels increase towards the end of the forecast.
What We Think
There are more charts over on the blog, as well as a fair amount of more detail. The data highlights that although those with less understanding of the economics and production side often expect big swings in technologies. However, the realities of the market are that such huge investments are needed to take share in the market, that change is relatively slow. If microLED or printable ELQDs are able to change that investment equation, then we could see faster change, but there have been many hopes of this kind of disruptive change in the past, with little real impact on the volume industry. (BR)
