DSCC Forecasts OLED Revenues to Reach $65B in 2026 on Double-Digit Unit Growth in IT, Smartphones and TVs

What They Say

DSCC published a blog post that forecast the OLED market and said that it expects a 9% CAGR from 2021 to 2026 to bring the value of the market to $65 billion driven by these categories:

• OLED monitors: 104% and 70% CAGR unit and revenue growth;
• OLED notebook PCs: 51% and 52% CAGR unit and revenue growth;
• OLED tablets: 45% and 52% CAGR unit and revenue growth;
• OLED TVs: 13% and 6% CAGR unit and revenue growth;
• OLED smartphones: 11% and 6% CAGR unit and revenue growth.

The firm said that a number of firms have switched their fab plans away from G6 for smartphones to lower cost G8.5/G8.6 fabs that can make IT application OLEDs.

For OLED monitors, DSCC has updated this forecast to reflect faster shipments from 2025 as panel suppliers ramp up future cost optimized G8.5 IGZO FMM VTE RGB OLED fabs. RGB OLEDs using FMM VTE equipment on lower cost G8.5/G8.6 IGZO backplanes could be the best solution for OLED monitors due to the ability to achieve higher brightness. For OLED tablets, the firm expects rapid growth from 2024 when Apple is expected to launch an 11” and 12.9” OLED tablet.

There are charts in the blog on revenues by application and notebooks are expected to be worth around $5.3 billion by the end of the forecast, around 20% more than the current value of TV OLEDs.

The blog looks at likely developments by maker (Samsung continues to dominate ahead of LGD and BOE). There is also analysis by substrate type and OLED area by application. As usual, there is lots on the blog.

What We Think

I’ve been doing some work on an upcoming DD that digs deep into the performance of the iPad Pro miniLED display. The report I got showed surprisingly little difference in haloing between the iPad and a Samsung OLED-based tablet. That means, I think, that cost and form factor will be the key differences between OLED and miniLED in many of these applications. Form factor will favour OLEDs in tablets, but in monitors, if miniLED costs can get down faster, the technology should be able to better compete. miniLED monitors will also be able to exploit the huge variety of sizes, resolutions and aspect ratios of the LCD supply chain much more easily than OLEDs. (BR)

Annual OLED Panel Shipments by Application Forecast, 2021-2026