Global pay TV revenues peaked in 2016 at $205 billion. Revenues will fall by 11% to $183 billion in 2023, despite the number of pay TV subscribers rising by 9%. Revenues per subscriber are declining as more homes convert to bundles.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “North American revenues will fall by a huge $22 billion between 2017 and 2023. The global decline will be $19 billion, so the other regions will grow overall. Western Europe will lose $2 billion but Asia Pacific will record a $3 billion increase.”
The Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report estimates that eight of the top 10 countries will lose pay TV revenues between 2017 and 2023. Revenues will decline in 47 of the 138 countries covered in the report between 2017 and 2023.
Twelve countries will lose more than 10% of their revenues. US pay TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $102 billion. A $27 billion decline is forecast between 2015 and 2023 to take its total down to $75 billion.
China will gain nearly $1 billion in pay TV revenues between 2017 and 2023 to bring its total to $13 billion – still a long way behind the US. India will provide the largest increase in pay TV revenues at $1.6 billion. Revenues will more than double for six countries between 2017 and 2023. Eight of the top 10 fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa.
Satellite TV and digital cable TV revenues will continue to be similar. Satellite TV revenues were $83 billion in 2017; falling to $77 billion by 2023. Digital cable TV will supply $76 billion in 2023; down from $85 billion in 2023. Analog cable TV still accounted for $7 billion in 2017.
IPTV is the pay TV revenue winner, with revenues increasing from $25 billion in 2017 to $27 billion in 2023.
