What Display Daily thinks: It’s been the last real working week of the year and you have to get your reports and PR out before you go home and face the music of grumpy teenagers who don’t like anything they get for Christmas, and relatives who don’t like anything you cook for them, after they invited themselves over for dinner.
So, you want a little joy, a sense of better things to come in the new year so, you take a leap of faith and say, “Yes, the good times are coming!”
That’s the only reason for the upbeat analysis below that I can think of.
Have a Merry Christmas. Enjoy hours of pleasure sitting in front of your 8K OLED TVs flipping through thumbnails of films and shows you might want to watch but can’t quite bring yourself to stopping at because, well, there’s always another thumbnail right around the corner, and there might be something better to watch.
There never is. Stick to common sense, and Die Hard, the only Christmas movie that ever hits the right note.
A Meta Tale of Mega Investments
The global market for AR and VR headsets is projected to see a decrease of 8.3% in 2023, with shipments expected to be around 8.1 million units. This is despite the introduction of new products during the year. The latest figures from IDC suggest that factors such as economic strain on consumers and reduced spending in commercial sectors are impacting growth. Notable releases like Sony’s PSVR and Meta’s Quest 3 have been positively received, but these broader economic factors are influencing the market.
| Product Category | 2023 Shipments | 2023/2022 Growth | 2027 Shipments | 2027/2026 Growth | 2023-2027 CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augmented Reality | 0.5 | 63.5% | 6.8 | 85.5% | 96.5% |
| Virtual Reality | 7.6 | -10.7% | 21.9 | 26.7% | 30.1% |
| Total | 8.1 | -8.3% | 28.7 | 37.0% | 37.2% |
Looking ahead to 2024, a significant rebound is anticipated, with a projected growth of 46.4% in AR/VR headset shipments. This resurgence is attributed to the full-year availability of Meta’s Quest 3 and the anticipated launch of Apple’s Vision Pro. Although the Vision Pro is expected to have a smaller shipping volume of under two hundred thousand units for the year, Meta has already exceeded this by a substantial margin in the first three quarters of 2023, prior to the Quest 3 launch. Meta, holding a market share of 55.2% in the third quarter of 2023, is predicted to see growth in 2024.
The introduction of new VR headsets is expected to drive sales volumes, but there’s a risk of alienating some customers due to higher average selling prices. The Vision Pro, with its steep price, is likely to be more suited for business use. On the other hand, the more affordable Quest 3 is also pushing the boundaries of consumer budgets, making VR a luxury for wealthier customers, especially as production of older, cheaper models decreases.
AR headsets are also projected to see growth in 2024, with the release of more affordable tethered headsets from companies like Xreal and Rokid, which are primarily used as monitor replacements to enhance productivity or media consumption. More advanced standalone headsets like Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 or Magic Leap 2 will continue to grow, though at a slower rate compared to tethered AR headsets. The total shipment of AR headsets is expected to reach 845,000 in 2024, marking an 85.6% increase from 2023.
It is anticipated that AR headsets will continue to evolve at a slower rate compared to VR headsets, but the diversification of products will cater to a broader range of needs. While 3D immersive and interactive augmented reality will primarily attract enterprise users, assisted reality headsets (which display content within the user’s line of sight) will find an audience among consumers interested in gaming and multimedia. Additionally, the growing interest in mixed reality is expected to enhance the appeal of augmented reality, particularly for those seeking an AR experience.
