2023 Proved More Than Challenging for OLED Notebooks

Beijing’s Sigmaintell is making a case for current OLED notebook production as being concentrated on small generation lines like G6, with limited manufacturers and high prices. To seize the OLED notebook opportunity, China’s domestic players like EDO, Visionox, and TCL CSOT are actively building next-gen OLED fabrication and so, we may be about to witness the real rise of OLED in notebooks.

Shipments of OLED notebooks (in millions) and penetration of the market. (Source: Sigmaintell)

Samsung is leading in high-generation with the first G8.7 line planned for 30K substrates/month in 2026. BOE is following with a G8.6 line and 32K subs/month in 2026-2027. With multiple G8+ lines starting production from 2026-2027, OLED notebook supply will expand exponentially, according to Sigmaintell, even though the analysts seem to be overstating the curve of growth.

Since 2016, when Lenovo launched its first OELD notebook, high prices and a lack of maturity in the technology have made OLED notebook adoption slow. But with smartphone OLEDs having takne off, notebooks are about to enter a phase of rapid growth. Brands like HP, Dell, Acer and Lenovo are adopting OLEDs from midrange to high end SKUs. Apple plans a full OLED shift for MacBooks.

2023 OLED notebook panel shipments will fall for the first time to 3.6M units as demand weakened significantly, according to Sigmaintell. However, with next generation fab launches will come significant cost cutting and accelerated market adoption. Sigmaintell projects 2026 shipments reaching 16.9M units equating to an 8% market penetration for OLED notebooks, rising rapidly in 2027-2028. Maybe that’s where it goes exponential, beyond the fringes of the existing chart.