Even in 2009 with gloomy economic forecasts, the most recent iSuppli forecast has LED device sales up for 2009 compared to 2008. The increase in sales is only forecast to be 2.9%, from $7.2B to $7.4B compared to a 10.8% increase in 2008. Major revenue growth is forecast to return in 2010, with iSuppli expecting a 11.1% increase. While 2.9% growth isn’t great, it is certainly better than the forecast decline in the overall semiconductor market of 9.4%.

Matt Brennesholtz
Insight Media Analyst

The LCD-TV market is expected to consume $163M of LEDs in 2009, up by 222% from 2008. This is small compared to the overall LED market, and is not even enough to account for the 2.9% overall growth. Therefore, we must assume the other LED markets must be relatively healthy and growing at least modestly this year. Since other markets for HB-LEDs include cell phones, other hand-held units, computer monitors and laptop computers, volumes here will be much higher than in LCD-TVs.

Where are these LEDs for television going? I took a quick look at the Best Buy website to see what LED-based HDTV products are being sold, how the prices compare to lamp-based displays and what users are saying about them.

Best Buy has a LED RPTV currently for sale for $1999 although one reviewer mentioned he bought it for $1899. This slim (15.8") 67" unit uses a 1080p SmoothPicture DLP and is 3D ready. Best Buy has 25 user reviews on-line for this set, averaging 4.7 out of 5, and several of them mention the good colors the set can produce. More surprisingly to me, several also mention the fact this was not their first Samsung LED RPTV.

A similar lamp-based 65" DLP RPTV from Mitsubishi is also slim (15.2") and 3D ready. While LEDs in general have better colorimetry than lamps in RPTV, the six-color BrilliantColor system and xvColor decoder in the Mitsubishi set makes up for at least some of that. The set had a user rating of 4.0 out of 5 based on 21 reviews. At least one user mentioned the color rainbow effect, something that isn’t a problem with LEDs. One reviewer gave it a 5 and commented on the good colors. There were more comments on the color wheel and the modest surprise that you couldn’t hear it. One reviewer had replaced 3 lamps in 18 months and was not happy. Replacement lamps for this set are now $99, down from $300 - $400.

Reviewers for both sets commented on the price/size issue compared to LCDs and plasma. The said they could get a 65/67 RPTV or a 40 - 50" LCD on their budget and had chosen the RPTV. Looking at LCDs, I see what they mean. Best Buy has a CCFL-based Sharp Aquos 65" on sale for $3400, more than twice what the Mitsubishi RPTV costs. While this FPD was only 4" deep, with the stand it was 15.9", comparable to the RPTVs.

Still want a LCD? At least you will have more choice in total models, if not in LED-based models. Best Buy has 138 SKUs for LCD TV (including LED and CCFL) but only 10 for RPTV. I could only find 5 LED-based LCD-TV on the Best Buy website: two Sony Bravia sets (55" and 46"), two Samsung units (55" and 46") and a 47" LG model on sale for $2800. The LG model was the least expensive LED-based LCD and the Sony 55" unit at $6500 was the most expensive. The LG model only has one user review (5 out of 5) and he comments on how the LEDs make the blacks blacker than previous LCDs. He goes on to say "it is very competitive to my Pioneer Plasma in the movie room." The Sony 55" set had 4 reviews with an average of 4.3 but this gives a distorted view. Three users raved with 5.0’s, including one who said three of his friends bought the set on his recommendation, and one user rated it as a 2, saying the "TV is better to be priced around $2999."

If you have a RPTV budget but want a LCD, the best bet at Best Buy may be the $1600, 52", CCFL-based Aquos model LC52D65U. It only has two user reviews for an average of 4.5 out of 5. Both reviewers mentioned they had paid $1300 for the set, and one commented on the good colors.

While there are already some LED-based products out there now, based on what Insight Media saw at CES earlier this month, more are coming. See the February issue of Large Display Report for details. Maybe we will even get that 222% growth iSuppli is forecasting.