In the first early release of market data, U.S. retail sales on last week’s Black Friday increased 3 percent from a year earlier, providing some market optimism while at the same time being the smallest gain in three years. Black Friday refers to the day after Thanksgiving, the start of the US holiday shopping season - and the day that retailers hope to go into the black, financially speaking.

According to retail sales tracker ShopperTrak RCT Corp., sales on Black Friday rose to $10.6 billion, the smallest increase since a decline of 0.9% in 2005. Sales jumped 8.3% in 2007. Over the four-day weekend, more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites nationwide, up from 147 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

Among some of the one-day-only HDTV deals posted on retailer ad circulars:

• •Samsung 50" 720p plasma $798, at Walmart
• •Samsung 42" 720p plasma $699.99, at kmart and BestBuy
• •Sony 37" 720p LCD $837, at hhgregg

And the following deals can be had for periods ranging from 3 days to 1 month, or possibly longer:

• •Sharp 52" 1080p LCD $799.99, at Costco
• •Panasonic 50" 720p plasma $899.99, at BestBuy
• •Philips 42" 1080p LCD $798.00, at Sam’s Club
• •Vizio 42" 1080p LCD $797, at Walmart
• •Vizio 42" 720p plasma $699.99, at Sears
• •Toshiba 40" 1080p LCD $799.99, at Circuit City
• •Samsung 37" 720p LCD $799.99, at Radio Shack
• •Olevia 37" 720p LCD $598, at Target

Another heavily discussed Black Friday deal was Wal-Mart’s Magnavox MB500MG9 Blu-ray player, which went for $128, down from $198.

A few observations are in order. First, some of these listings reflect northeast pricing, but are probably similar throughout the nation. Descriptions seem to be accurate, for the most part, but some exaggerations persist, such as referring to a 1024×768 set as "720p," and advertising 480Hz processing when it’s not true. Perhaps these are true misprints given the volume of buying information that must be relayed in short order. Needless to say, many people will take home an "HDTV" set, and won’t know the difference if it’s high definition or not (yes, there are still misperceptions about this).

Another interesting trend is that the discounted prices for 1080p LCD vs. 720p plasma are approaching parity. Also, while the deepest discounts are limited to Black Friday, a growing number of retailers are willing to extend moderate discounts all the way to year’s end. It appears that the last thing they want is uncleared inventory.

Whether this is a one-time phenomenon or an indicator of consumer optimism remains to be seen. Consumers are willing to spend savings - albeit carefully - to provide in-home entertainment. (I note anecdotally that traffic at every liquor store I’ve spotted seems to be good - but revenue is down at gambling casinos. Consumers seem willing to entertain themselves, or drown their sorrows, but are increasingly wary of relying on luck.)

Prices of true HDTV sets have now fallen to the point where a critical mass of consumers will no longer be satisfied with non-HD performance. A further statistic to watch will be the proportion of non-HD (or even 4:3) sets sold in the holiday season, or even thereafter. Sure to follow: more details on Black Friday sales, as well as reports on Cyber Monday, an additional (online) indicator of holiday sales. More data is expected on Thursday, too, when national chain stores are scheduled to report November sales. Check back for updates.-AC