It’s The (stupid) Economy
November 3rd, 2008Are there tough times ahead for the CE industry? Or might it fare better than other industries based on discretionary spending? CEA said earlier this month that retail sales for consumer electronics were up 1.2 percent in August from the same period last year, with sales of flat-panel TV sets up 40 percent so far this year. By contrast, sales of home furnishings were down 6.8 percent, and auto sales were down 13.5 percent. For the upcoming holiday season, the organization predicts sales of home entertainment gear will remain strong, with unit sales of TV and stereo equipment up 4.7 percent from 2007.
Aldo Cugnini
Insight Media Consultant
Spinmeisters continue to paint a rosy picture amid the doom and gloom. CEA also recently hosted a Webcast entitled, "Economy in Crisis: How We Got Here, Where Do We Go and What Does it Mean for Consumer Electronics and Your Business." While avoiding hard and fast predictions, the presentation suggested an optimistic picture for fall CE sales.
But does this truly indicate the state of the industry, or is it just a consequence of averaging data since the beginning of the year? Consumer spending dipped at a 3.1 percent annual rate between July and September, after growing at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the previous three months. Market research firm The NPD Group recently said retail consumer electronics sales slipped 2 percent in September, allaying fears of bigger declines for the electronics industry. In comparison, CE revenue fell 1 percent in September 2007.
Optimists say the industry may avoid the perilous drop experienced elsewhere in the market. While a conservative analysis would suggest that consumer spending may follow the market trend, with its own ups and downs, a good prediction is extremely difficult. The next sure indicator will be the upcoming "Black Friday" after Thanksgiving, a traditional bellwether for the holiday season.
But the elephant in the room may just be a different kind of consumer confidence — the one in our nation’s leadership. Begging the editor’s indulgence, I digress, while still addressing the economic issue. With the national election just one day away, our collective voting decision just might make the difference in the global market that represents all of our businesses. The New York Times last week underscored that "whoever captures the White House seems certain to inherit a starkly challenging economic picture." But isn’t long-term growth just as important as a short-term fix?
The writer Tom Friedman said that the world is flat, but many citizens refuse to accept this. It’s been reported that much of the world views the United States as selfish and indifferent to the global community. Perhaps it’s time we consider what’s better for the world, rather than simply what benefits our individual pockets. There is mounting evidence that, in the long run, such an attitude will come back to benefit us in a greater way.
Our duty as citizens should be to install the best leaders and not to instinctively endorse a ticket simply because we share a party, gender or race. Both presidential candidates have a track record of strong leadership skills, but they differ in terms of their styles and approach to international politics. Can we be courageous and cast our vote in terms of far-reaching benefits? Can we be smart–and courageous–for a change?





