Do you remember back to the 1980s and 1990s when organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) were starting to be developed with serious intent…and some of the predictions that were being made in those days?

To refresh your memory, semi-conducting polymers were a major research topic at many leading laboratories, and the problems of getting efficient red, green and blue were high on the ‘must do’ list , along with life-time issues. There was also a fierce debate over the use of small molecules or polymers - which would be best - which would win?

Well, all that seems like a long time ago, and now we are seeing the early-introduction stages of this new technology into the market place. Not surprisingly, there are some faltering steps being taken at this time. As with the introduction of so many new technologies, precisely how it will be done is not quite sorted out yet - and will take a while.

Recently we’ve had the widely reported introduction of Sony’s 11-inch OLED television - and it is a very impressive display, albeit a little on the small side. The production quantities are currently small, maybe a few thousands per month, and the price is quite high - around $1,800. It is reported that Sony has a prototype 27-inch version, but no current plans to bring this to the market place. At CES, we believe Sony will announce an expansion of the distribution of its 11" OLED TV to North America, and possibly other regions as well.

On the other hand, Toshiba has just announced the postponement of it’s scheduled 30-inch OLED television from a planned 2009 introduction, and are re-focusing into smaller displays, for the mobile display markets including cell-phones.

These companies and others are having to square-up to the immense problems and complexities of bringing such an advanced new technology into high-volume manufacturing. Significant amounts of speculative money will be necessary - who has the deepest pockets and the nerve?

The interesting thing is that in all the reports I’ve seen so far, commentators and analysts are constantly talking about the competitive position of OLED television versus LCDs and Plasmas - not surprisingly, of course.

But think back to those heady early years when OLED research and development was in its exciting new phase. The predictions then were not for large flat panels to compete with LCD etc. - they were for novel products that would entertain us in new ways.

I recall one article (by Paul May in Physics World, March 1995, pp 52-58) with a vivid description of a roll-up-able plastic TV perhaps incorporating polymer-based batteries that could be wirelessly connected to information of any description and read in the bath - a great idea! The picture shown here is reproduced from that article. Newspapers and books on a waterproof screen with no wires attached to it, while you take a long hot soak and sip champagne (or whatever).

And that is the focus of this article. The focus of OLED development has changed from enabling new applications with a unique technology to one that seeks to displace incumbent technologies in mature markets. While the lure of these high volume applications is attractive because they are known markets, the competition will be severe. OLEDs do offer some compelling value propositions for these established markets, but they can also enable new applications and markets too - but these are not getting the attention they did in their early days.

I suspect this may change as OLEDs mature, so keep your eye out for for roll-up or curved OLED displays, because they switch quickly and they are not restricted to flat sheets of glass. Will they find opportunities in gaming, simulators, 3D, wrap-around desktop monitors, replacements for big curved-projection screens in planetariums, and wall-sized touch-sensitive displays in your home or office (who wants wallpaper anyway?)

Dream on.