Yes, it’s time for my annual Black Friday post-mortem, plowing through stacks of store flyers and newspapers inserts. This particular holiday selling season is being watched more closely than usual, given the generally downbeat feelings about the economy.

A combination of higher energy prices, the mortgage industry crisis, tightening credit, and a generally downbeat attitude among the buying public seems to indicate that the fourth quarter won’t be filled with mirth and good feelings for the likes of Best Buy, Target, Wal-Mart, Circuit City, and Sears.

Despite the Consumer Electronics Association’s overly optimistic forecast for a seven percent increase in spending on CE items from last year, the majority of industry analysts feel that people will be waiting longer and searching harder for bargain-basement prices. As a result, you’d expect the major retail chains to put bigger bait on their fishing lines by offering steep discounts.

And that’s exactly what we saw on Black Friday, although the chain that made the biggest splash in the Philadelphia metro area was Boscov’s, a regional version of Sears that sells everything from clothing and appliances to HDTVs. They got things off to a flying start with a special one-day price of $999 on Panasonic’s 50-inch TH-50PX77U 720p plasma HDTV, a discount of $1000 off the MSRP.

Circuit City joined the fun with an $800 price tag on Samsung’s HLT5075S 50-inch 720p DLP RPTV and a markdown to $1000 on a Zenith 50-inch Z50P3 720p plasma HDTV. Another notable discount was applied to Sharp’s 46-inch LC46D64U thin-bezel 1080p LCD HDTV, which was advertised at $1300. Samsung’s BD-P1400 Blu-ray player also got whacked to $378.

Over at Best Buy, Toshiba’s entry-level HD-A3 HD DVD player was available for $199 with an instant rebate, while Samsung’s 50-inch FP-T5044 720p plasma HDTV was ticketed at $1400, including a free Geek Squad delivery and installation valued at $200. HP’s LC4276N 42-inch 1080p LCD HDTV was also aggressively priced at $997.

Things got even more interesting on Saturday, when Circuit City showcased Hitachi’s "1080i" P50H401 50-inch plasma HDTV for $1300, a $700 price drop. This model has a non-standard 1280×1080 resolution and is branded alternately as a "720p" set (by CC) or a "1080i" set (by Hitachi).

In the wholesale club world, BJ’s had a Syntax Olevia 47-inch 1080p LCD HDTV for $1000 with instant coupon and a 42-inch model from the same manufacturer for $700. Vizio, an aggressive discounter, had its 52-inch GV52L LCD HDTV reduced to $1,889, which has to be some kind of record for that screen size. They also matched the Boscov’s/Panasonic Black Friday 50-inch blowout with a $999 tag on Vizio’s 720p VP50 plasma HDTV.

Did any of this help? According to an AP story this morning, sales on Black Friday rose on average 8.3 percent over 2006, according to Shoppertrack.com, while combined Friday and Saturday sales were up 7.2% over last year. However, the National Retail Federation surveyed many of those eager buyers and found that the average amount spent over the weekend was $348, down 4.4% from 2006.

In another survey, 55% said they confined their shopping this past weekend to discount chains like Target and Wal-Mart, which represents a 50% increase over last year. And lower-cost items such as digital photo frames and (of all things) $130 KitchenAid mixers were more popular than LCD TVs at Target.

None of this news bodes well for TV manufacturers, nor does it hold out promise of strong sales of blue laser DVD players and disc media this holiday season. Despite the fact that the Cyber Sunday Best Buy and Circuit City flyers show more conventional prices and discounts across all HDTV categories, the Black Friday bargains listed are just the opening salvos in a big HDTV price war that will probably extend all the way into late January as the Super Bowl looms.

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