Somewhat buried in DisplaySearch’s summary of its Quarterly OLED Shipment and Forecast Report for 2Q, released this week, were numbers indicating that the long-anticipated and long-delayed ramp-up of active-matrix OLED display deliveries is finally under way. Despite my headline, don’t think of this as a rocket being launched with sound, flame, and fury. Rather, think of it as a soap-box racer slowly beginning to coast downhill but inevitably gaining speed as it goes.

Ken Werner
Senior Analyst and Editor

In 2Q, Samsung SDI, Kodak, and eMagin together shipped 1.45M AMOLED displays for (mostly) mobile phone main displays, media players, and (in the case eMagin) near-the-eye viewers and head-mounted displays. That may not sound impressive, but it’s the first time AMOLED has exceeded 0.25% of the total shipments. And it did that by a substantial margin, since the total number of OLED displays shipped in the quarter was 19.8M, up 24% from 2Q’06. Not yet contributing to the AMOLED numbers are recent efforts by CMEL, which claims to have a European customer for an initial 10,000-unit order, with others on the way. In addition, new volume suppliers are gearing up, and Samsung SDI, the leading AMOLED producer, is adding new customers. In addition to Kyocera, its first volume customer, SDI now claims European handset giant Nokia and at least two Japanese handset makers, who have not yet been identified.

DisplaySearch’s Barry Young said, "Over the next year, we are expecting [overall OLED display] revenues to grow by 117% due to the introduction of AMOLED displays for mobile phone main displays and digital cameras, plus the added number of suppliers, including TPO, LG.Philips LCD and Casio."

In addition, Sony still maintains it will be selling its 11-inch AMOLED-TV in the fourth quarter of this year. This TV is clearly an early adopter’s toy rather than a high-volume TV built to the usual exacting standards of the television industry. In particular, while the industry generally insists on a display lifetime of 50K hours or more, the OLED materials available for TV panels today generally have a lifetime of 5K to 8K hours. That’s enough for a lifetime of 2½ to 3 years before the screen goes to half of its original brightness. Also, Sony’s 11-inch toy is projected to sell for close to $1000. That’s pricey in a season when you can buy an extremely good 42-inch HD plasma or LCD-TV for $1200 from first-tier manufacturers, and for substantially less than $1000 from highly reputable third-tier suppliers.

Still, the image on the little Sony is knock-down gorgeous, and these sets will make highly appreciated holiday-season toys. More strategically, they will create excitement and demand for more mainstream AMOLED products - and that will encourage manufacturers to invest in the materials and process R&D required to bring AMOLED technology into the flat-screen fray as a fully equal competitor.

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