Psst? Want to know who’s going to win the blue laser DVD war? Listen up.

Peter Putman
ROAM Consulting

It’s really not all that hard to handicap. The blue laser format with the lowest prices and the largest selection of movies will be the eventual winner. Only problem is; the format with the lowest player prices (HD DVD) is at a disadvantage when it comes to breadth of titles.

Why’s that? Because three studios (Sony, Disney, and Fox) have pledged their loyalty exclusively to Blu-ray, while only Universal has committed solely to HD DVD. Paramount and Warner Brothers are straddling both formats. The only way Toshiba can level the playing field is to convince one member of the Blu-ray "troika" to also release their content in HD DVD.

I’d pegged Disney as the most logical candidate to cross the blue laser fence. After all, they are a giant in packaged media distribution, what with their immense library of movies, animation, and TV programs, and the more distribution they have, the better.

But it seems that Disney’s going to stay the course for now. A recent press release announced that Disney and Blu-ray manufacturing partner Panasonic are launching a national grassroots "Magical Blu-ray Tour" to promote Blu-ray at 18 malls nationwide with interactive kiosks, viewing stations and a small Blu-ray theater.

Participants at each tour location will be able to watch such movies as Cars and Meet The Robinsons in Blu-ray and register to win a free Panasonic Blu-ray player - presumably, the $599 DMP-BD10R - and a library of Disney Blu-ray DVDs to go with it. (Well, so much for winning Disney over to HD DVD!)

So, what’s Toshiba got up their sleeve? They’ve just extended "The Perfect Offer" until September 30. It’s a promotion wherein any purchase of a new HD DVD player includes a mail-in coupon good for five free HD DVD titles from a library of 15 selections that include Seabiscuit, U-571, The Dukes of Hazzard, Sky Captain, Casablanca, and (ironically) The Perfect Storm.

That’s a better deal than I got when I bought an HD-A2 from my local Best Buy store, right before Christmas 2006 - my rebate offer was for only three movies from that list, and it took several months before they were shipped.

The Disney/Panasonic release parrots the Blu-ray Association’s claim that Blu-ray titles have 70% market share, week to week, of all blue laser titles sold. (Funny, I heard a similar number for HD DVD sales at Toshiba’s press conference last month.)

Unfortunately, when it comes to "hot" blue laser titles, the Blu-ray camp seems to hold the cards right now. In my Display Daily column from July 9, I mentioned that all of the blockbuster movies from this summer will be eventually released in the Blu-ray format, but two (Spider-Man and Pirates of the Caribbean) won’t be available in HD DVD. That will not help Toshiba this December at the sales counter.

There’s still a possibility that Disney and/or Fox could be persuaded to cross lines, or at least support both formats. In the meantime, one thing Toshiba needs to do ASAP is to widen considerably the selection of movie titles in "The Perfect Offer"- say, 30 to 50 movies, instead of a piddling 15.

How about adding Batman Begins, or Superman Returns? Shrek 1 and 2? Older Harry Potter movies? If cost of newer titles is a concern, then roll out a "two for one" deal - buy a current HD DVD title, and choose from a B-list of free titles. Or, buy half a season of The Sopranos and get the other half free, or at half-price.

Past studies have shown that most consumers still aren’t paying much attention to the blue laser battles, nor do they care. (Hence, the Disney/Panasonic tour!) They just want a good deal on a new DVD player, and if it’s HD, so much the better - as long as it doesn’t cost more than $300.

Ultimately, aggressive merchandizing, bundles, coupons, and discounts will determine who wins this battle - not technology…