Last week, Warner Home Media announced it was shelving its plans to introduce TotalHD, a dual-format blue laser (BL) DVD that would bridge the gap between the Blu-ray and HD DVD camps.

Peter Putman
ROAM Consulting

Warner announced Total HD with a splashy press conference and reception at CES 2007, showing clips from Superman Returns in both blue laser formats by moving the same disc from a Toshiba player to a Sony player. They also played BD and HD DVD clips in LG’s dual format BH100 player.

At that time, I remained skeptical about the wisdom of a dual format BL disc, and still do. With a dual format BL DVD, the company with the cheapest players wins the Blu-ray / HD DVD battle. But that assumes that a majority of Hollywood studios will support both formats with ample movie titles.

That will likely happen when the Cubs win the World Series. Sony, who developed the Blu-ray format (available professionally as XDCAM and XDCAM HD), has coaxed Disney and Fox squarely into the Blu-ray camp. On the other hand, Universal supports the HD DVD format exclusively. That leaves Warner and Paramount decisively straddling the blue laser fence.

The Associated Press story on the announcement states, "…Warner believes other studios must also embrace both formats along with the Total HD technology and release at least 10 popular titles before stores would be willing to devote shelf space to the discs. That is unlikely to happen by the fourth quarter, leading the company to push back the introduction until early next year."

Read that last sentence again. One big reason why it is "unlikely to happen in the fourth quarter" is that two of the summer’s blockbuster hits, Spider Man III (Sony Pictures) and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Disney) will be released at that time exclusively on Blu-Ray. That will tilt the battle significantly in Blu-ray’s favor.

Of course, each title will be contending with Shrek the Third and Transformers, both distributed by Paramount, which means a combination Blu-ray and HD DVD release later this year. That won’t provide any particular advantage to the HD DVD camp.

The only way this battle will be won is for blue laser DVD player prices to drop low enough that consumers will buy them instead of new red laser models. Toshiba has already lowered its entry-level HD-A2 to $299 as a result of consumer price perception studies, and discounts the player even more as part of a price bundle with new Regza LCD HDTVs - a strategy that seems to be working quite well.

In contrast, Sony has priced its newest BD player at $499, which represents a substantial discount over last year’s model, but is still too costly for the average buyer - for now. The smart money says that price will drop further to $299 by the fourth quarter, something that Sony’s Stan Glasgow hinted at earlier this year. None of the BD supporters have yet to match Toshiba’s bundling strategy, though.

In short, a dual-format BL DVD doesn’t make any more sense now than it did in January, particularly since only Warner Home Video currently has any interest in supporting it. The BL player market is still too small and each format’s supporters have nothing to gain and everything to lose by conceding any ground to their opponents.

The eventual winner will combine the lowest-cost playback format with the most movies - it’s that simple. Everything else is just tilting at windmills.