We picked up a story today from This Week in CE (TWICE) on Quixel’s new numbers for worldwide MDTV sales. For the most part the tone of the report is upbeat for the industry, and Quixel’s principal Tamran Pratt is quoted by TWICE saying "the MD category hit a homerun in 2006", up to 2.3M units from 1.8M in 2005.

Steve Sechrist
Senior Analyst and Editor
Projection Monthly

In reality, her message to the MDTV makers is rather grim: First, she indicates a negative growth in the coming years for the MDTV category with a forecast of 1.9M units to sell in 2007 and that number is to drop below 1M units by 2010.

TWICE quotes Pratt punctuating the cold reality stating the microdisplay category "remains a …USA phenomenon, fueled by consumers’ desire to have big screen TVs at an affordable price." Pratt continues: "Contrary to what some component suppliers would like us to believe, there is almost zero indication that this category will migrate anywhere else in the world successfully."

Pratt sees the lion’s share of the almost 2M units to be sold this year going to 1080p sets. She cites the Q1-07 share at 48%, growing to possibly 60% by the end of the year, a number that doubles the 2006 market share for full-HD resolution sets. These customers are "On the high end of the category (more disposable income) and interested in long-term value" Pratt indicated.

To support the strong decline in the forecast, Quixel contends that consumers ultimately will opt for a flat-TV over an RPTV, even a skinny one, in reference to the strides DLP set makers have made in creating thin MDTVs. Pratt is quoted by TWICE saying:" Our primary research has consistently shown that most consumers want a flat TV - not a skinny RPTV but a flat TV - and the marketplace has borne that out." She said "Even at an ASP of $2,750, the 60-inch and larger 1080p segment is a great deal when compared to the price of a flat TV with similar specs. Taking all stats aside, it is all about trade off - do you want thinner or bigger and cheaper?"

So according to Quixel’s numbers, the writing is on the wall for MDTVs. You can throw out all the LED and laser illumination advancements, breakthroughs in making the sets thin, and the fact that mounted on the wall they can even look aesthetically identical to an LCD or PDP set. Only folks in the US will buy them, and only for the next few years at best before the category is relegated to a niche market status.

But what still bothers me about all this, is the statement that the MDTV is a "US phenomena". Is it true that we here in the US are that unique from the rest of the world’s consumer habits-that our desire for large screen displays at "an affordable price" are so different from everyone else in the world?

My gut says no, there must be another explanation for the numbers and perhaps another fate for the technology that has touched so many. Stay tuned for more on this in the coming weeks.