…is probably an oncoming train, according to Bob Ross, vice president for CBS’ east coast operations. Ross spoke at New Jersey Network’s facilities in Trenton, NJ last Thursday night during the Philadelphia SMPTE chapter’s monthly meeting, and his subject was the fast-approaching terrestrial analog TV shutdown date of February 17, 2009.

More specifically, Ross provided some interesting statistics that show there just isn’t enough time left until "D-Day" to (a) install upgraded and back-up antennas and (b) order new and/or backup transmitters.

Given that there are a limited number of qualified tower crews to perform the "high-wire" work and only two summers left in which to do it, there is going to be a mad scramble for manpower.  The problem is exacerbated by the fact that there are only three manufacturers of DTV transmitters serving the US market, and they simply won’t be able to fill all of the orders in time.

There are numerous other problems below the radar of TV station general managers that must be resolved over the next 24 months.  One big one is the lack of technical training in monitoring 8VSB signals and MPEG program streams, something many stations simply ignore in the current dual-cast environment.

You’d be surprised how many stations don’t have a simple DTV receiver ($179) and transport stream monitoring software (about $400) in their master control rooms.  Perhaps that’s understandable - many stations don’t even have full-time engineering staffs anymore (too expensive!).

How about closed captions?  NTSC uses EIA608-standard captions; ATSC uses EIA708 captions.  How will local stations convert and feed those captions for cable and DBS head-ends?  For that matter, how will local stations take an SDTV network feed and get it to those same head-ends, when CBS and other networks plan to shut down SDTV feeds later in 2009 in favor of a single HD feed? (Hey, transponders are expensive!)

Another big headache is digital audio.  You’ll find as many different settings for dialogue normalization ("dial-norm") as there are DTV stations in a given market, so when will everyone get on the same page technically?  How about converting Dolby Digital 5.1 to ProLogic 2.0 for SD feeds?  How many stations are using the Dolby-E digital audio transport protocol correctly, or even at all?

What about metadata embedded in TV programs and commercials - will it be handled and passed along correctly?  Will all DTV stations ever transmit full Program and System Information Protocol (PSIP) data, including captions, program ratings, and electronic program guide with extended text descriptions?

Right now, DTV operations seem to be an afterthought to many TV stations - a light that someone left on in a utility shed, way out back on the property.  If it burns out, so what? Where’s the harm?  Who’s really watching, anyway?

According to Ross, any "harm" will become glaringly evident to general managers after 2/17/09 when a given station experiences a DTV transmitter malfunction, MPEG transport stream screw-up, or dropped/incorrectly-mixed audio, all of which will force advertising "make goods" that cost plenty of money.

The most discouraging thing about his presentation is that it will probably require 3+ years to fill all of the hundreds of yet-to-be-placed orders for DTV transmitters and antenna work.  (CBS has one rigging crew booked for a full year, just to do antenna work on San Francisco’s Sutro antenna tower!)

In the good old days, the most important person at any TV station was the chief engineer (CE).  Even GMs deferred to whatever the CE asked for.  Today, CE’s are often paid lip service, or largely ignored - that is, if there even is a CE on staff any more and the station’s engineering functions haven’t been outsourced.

Are we headed for a train wreck in two years?  Sure looks like it, unless the FCC and Congress extend the cut-off date one more time, an eventuality Ross said is extremely unlikely to happen.  The DTV Express is just going too fast to stop now…