Most people are incredulous when I mention the need for an HDTV 70 inches or larger in an average living room.  There are several understandable reasons why such a large TV might seem unacceptable, including intrusiveness, cost, and lack of HD content, not to mention the “expert” advice shoppers get when shopping for their next - probably flat-screen - TV.   Now, finally, the experts are coming over to my side with their analyses - even though the latest experts are financial analysts.

John DiLoreto
Analyst and Editor for
Insight Media

In Reuters this week, the Sanford C. Bernstein brokerage house said in a research note that 70-inch TVs could be the “right size” right size in two years.  While 42- to 50-inch TVs seem within reach of new buyers (at $1,000 - $2,000), it’s downright refreshing to hear what I’ve been advocating for years.

“We decided to investigate the optimal screen size for high definition viewing,” wrote analyst Jeff Evenson in the note. “We conclude that 65 inch to 75 inch is the right size for a 10-foot viewing distance.”

His reasoning?  Flat panel manufacturers are ramping up this size in the next couple of years, removing the cost and bulkiness associated with TVs of this size in the past.  With Samsung expected to ramp 70-inch production and AU Optronics expected to ramp up 65-inch production in early 2007, he said TV size seems likely to march upward.

So, a 65-inch LCD-TV won’t cost the $20,000 we’ve seen in the past year. “Affordability of large screens has and should continue to improve,” Evenson wrote. “Our analysis indicates that 70 inch - 80 inch screens could cost around $3,000 in 2010.” Note: RPTVs that size will be even less.

But there have been other barriers, as well.  I have mentioned the historic lack of hi-def content.  Blu-ray and HD DVD are just starting to come out.  And, many existing HD broadcasts are compressed to save bandwidth, making the picture fuzzier than what the TV will reproduce.  (That means you don’t need one as big to see everything.)

Another barrier is what former LG.Philips LCD executive Bruce Berkoff refers to as the “wife acceptance factor.” Indeed, a 70-inch might seem quite imposing to one sensitive to home décor.  That would be especially true, if the TV is 20 inches deep, as a rear projection unit might be.

But this report helps remove one other barrier - the “expert” advice one gets when shopping for a TV.  Savvy salesmen know that recommending too large a size will kill a potential sale.  I have visited several HDTV retailers for Insight Media where sales personnel have recommended a size 36 to 42 inches for an average living room - which is just what they happen to have in stock and what they expect the customer might be willing to afford.

At CES next month there will be plenty of commercially viable 70-inch LCD-TVs, plasma TVs and RPTVs from a long list of manufacturers.  Even more certain is that in another two years, they will be even more affordable - and mainstream - especially now that we have at least one set of financial experts on our side.