An LA Times/Bloomberg survey released this week proclaimed a wake-up call for mobile video citing results from the study that a full 40% of teenagers said they were "not interested" in watching video on anything other than a TV. The report goes on to say that the same age group’s willingness to view video on a cell phone or iPod is a scant 14% and 17%, respectively.

Steve Sechrist
Senior Analyst and Editor
of Projection Monthly

The "wake-up call" in this data is rooted in the assumption that teens (tech-savvy young consumers) are most likely to drive early adoption of these new mobile video technologies-and the numbers suggest this group has yet to fully embrace this cutting-edge service.

Okay, beyond these dramatic headlines, let’s look deeper into the numbers for the information that may help explain the data. For instance, despite 40% saying they were "not interested" , we find 2 out of 5 (or 40%) were "open" to viewing this type of content "on-line." The implication here is on-line at home in front of the computer, but the term on-line may be a very different one from what the pollsters imagined.

Case in point, the "U.S. Device Census Report for Q2′06" from Telephia cites 34.6M mobile users (all age groups) were on-line in June. While the bulk of these were on mainstream e-mail sites, the Weather channel, ESPN, Google Search and MapQuest also topped out the list of popular mobile web destinations.

Further, the Times / Bloomberg study said 20% of the females in the teen demographic were "open" to TV on cell phones and that number grew to a full 25% on the "latest model" iPod. This data suggests that teens see the display image quality as better on an iPod than a cell phone and that the quality of the display matters if they are watching video. It is not about the video content or ease of use, but rather, display image quality. Other follow up comments supported this point, with concerns voiced over the expectation of "grainy" images and "not as clear a picture."

Our take: First, we do not agree with the assumption the teen demographic will drive early adoption of mobile video. Presently, these services have a high cost barrier to entry, particularly the added network service fees and the cost of newer handsets with more robust display technology needed to support enhanced video features. The more likely groups to adopt mobile video include sports fans (hence the ESPN site showing up in the top mobile web on-line site) and the post-teen mobile working adults.

Secondly, we should be very careful about drawing conclusions about future mobile video demand from a general survey on "entertainment consumption." Pollsters need a clear understanding of consumer display and network expectations to arrive at a solid understanding of this market. — SS