Projection Summit opened today in Orlando with 14 presentations, an analyst’s panel discussion and exhibitor booths. Nearly every conversation during the reception following the last presentation seemed to be dominated by one of three topics:

Matt Brennesholtz
Insight Media Analyst

1. How can RPTV fend off the inroads or Plasma and LCD?

This is not a trivial question for the industry. MCG analyst, Steve Marsland, for example, showed his forecast for RPTV through 2009, with a huge range in possible forecasts, from about 5M to about 13M units. Other analysts, including myself, have forecast numbers even lower than 5M.

The question is how RPTV can avoid becoming irrelevant in the face of a flood of LCD and Plasma over the coming 5 years. Marsland suggests a “Plasma Play.” Plasma touted itself as an industry, not a collection of competing companies. Plasma presented itself as high-tech, cool and high definition - and then they sold consumer “extended” definition sets. Exact and literal truth is rarely needed in marketing efforts. Plasma also filled a need, the 32″-50″ size range, that neither direct view or Projection CRT was filling at the time. The plasma companies, while competing fiercely, have kept a united face against RPTV and LCD systems.

Can MD-RPTV companies band together to promote MD-RPTV’s advantages? It is hard to imagine Sony diluting its SXRD marketing effort, Texas Instruments diluting its DLP marketing or Epson diluting its 3LCD marketing, but the war on plasma and LCD could make strange bedfellows. Marsland’s 13M unit forecast is based on the assumption that the MD-RPTV industry will make an aggressive response to the challenge of plasma and LCD.

RPTV has gotten a bum rap in public perception. When I asked a salesperson in a store a couple of months ago if they had any projection sets, she said only 3 or 4 and they were phasing them out because no one wanted them. It turns out she meant CRT projection, not microdisplay projection, of which they had a whole wall full. Her answer was they weren’t projection sets, they were DLP sets. According to her, even the sets that clearly had a 3LCD logo were DLP. She also said that no one bought sets like them if they could afford something better, such as plasma or LCD. I agree with Steve, we have an image problem here.

Numerous people, both speakers at Projection Summit and in the side conversations, had opinions on what to do about this problem. Better colorimetry, said the laser and LED people. 1080 resolution said the DLP people. Wider ranges of sizes, including units in the 44″ range where they could compete with plasma and LCD on price. This last suggestion was made primarily with the intention of keeping RPTV volumes high enough to keep economies of scale.

Techno Systems Research analyst Midori Takaso said the MDTV makers should focus on the eco-friendliness of MDTVs and the significant power saving compared with flat panels. They should also look for regional opportunities in Brazil, India and China.

iSuppli analyst Sanju Kahtri agreed adding Eastern Europe to the list and she stressed the need to focus on the 4 P’s - price, product, place, promotion.

All agreed that styling is important and a thin profile a must. Current thinking is to make MDTVs look more plasma-like to boost sales. This is a good idea, but it does not play to projection’s core differentiator - the ability to create styling and form factors that flat panels cannot do. Why not create a 60″ MDTV with a slightly concave screen to create a more immersive and quazi-3D image? Why not create unique cabinet design with styling that can’t be duplicated by flat panels. Don’t we really need some out-of-the-box instead of copy-cat thinking here?

I don’t know the answers to these marketing questions, but I do know that in 2009 I would rather see our industry sell 13M sets than 5M, or perhaps less.

The other topics of conversation?

2. Light Sources for projection systems: UHP-type, LED or Laser?
3. Who at SID scheduled SID in San Francisco the same week as Infocomm in Orlando?

Light sources are interesting, but perhaps it is best if the answer to the SID question remains a mystery, as long as it never happens again. -MB