Like astronomers forecasting the next celestial event, Blu-ray media planners have announced the planets are finally aligning for content providers and CE manufacturers by designating May 23rd as Blu-ray day. At the appointed hour, consumers can expect to see the convergent delivery of Blu-ray disc (BD) titles at retail and the availability of a BD player, the first from the likes of Samsung (BD-P1000) with Pioneer and Sony to follow in short order.

Steve Sechrist
Senior Analyst and Editor
of Projection Monthly &
Microdisplay Report

The announcement also said players will be sold through BestBuy and Circuit City outlets not unlike the rival HD-DVD technology. But Samsung is asking $1000 for its player and Pioneer previously announced an $1800 price. That’s a $200 - $500 price premium over the two Toshiba models for Samsung, and a whopping $1,000 to $1300 more for Pioneer’s Blu-ray player.

So today’s announcement moves us one step closer to the dreaded format war where so far, much ink (not blood) has been spilt. The HD-DVD camp took a less complex route targeting lower cost by upgrading current DVD technology in order to compete with film distribution via the Internet.

Blu-ray claims their technology is “revolutionary not evolutionary” and for good reason. Blu-ray developers removed all the stops, creating a brand new technology format that can accommodate new and yet-to-be-created features. The result is the more complex Blu-ray disc format can store up to 25GB of content (single layer) but is more expensive to make, and players are more expensive to buy. The HD-DVD upgrade can store 15GB of content.

In the Beta/VHS wars of thirty years ago, storage capacity was the pivotal issue. VHS gained the edge over the Sony BetaMax standard by offering a 2X initial storage capacity and the ability to record a full-featured film. Today the HD-DVD format supports up to 4 hours playing time on their single layer 15GB disc (a ~8 Mbps)-so storage isn’t the issue this time, and cost just might be.

Both Blu-ray and HD DVD can also support playback at the higher quality 12Mbps. A 25GB Blu-ray disc can store 3.7 hours and a 15GB HD DVD disc can store 2.2 hours. But for longer films and more interactivity and related content, most HD DVDs will need to run with higher compression and lower bit rates, potentially producing more artifacts. But can typical users see the difference on 50-inch screens? Not likely.

Some analysts have raised the question about Sony’s approach of trying to create new formats when consumers turn out to be content with something less ambitious and more importantly to the market, far less expensive.

So it seems we are well past wondering and second-guessing as battle lines are being drawn and the next format war is already upon us. Now consumers must determine the ultimate victor by voting with their dollars and probably most will hold back for fear of choosing the wrong format-slowing technology adoption in the process. But this too shall pass. -SS